Seven years after the release of Toy Story 4, Disney and Pixar’s iconic animated franchise will make its long-awaited return to the big screen with Toy Story 5. The movie is projected to deliver the biggest opening weekend in Toy Story franchise history, with some industry estimates pointing to around $275 million worldwide.
In North America, Toy Story 5 is expected to earn around $140 million during its opening weekend across 4,425 theaters. If this turns out to be true, then the film will record the biggest domestic opening of any movie released in 2026 to date.
The movie will be released in all major premium formats, including Premium Large Format screens and IMAX. These screenings usually generate more revenue since tickets cost more.
International Markets To Play Major Role
A large share of the film’s earnings will come from international markets. Overseas, the projected total is around $135 million, with the movie releasing in about 87% of international markets, including China. However, Japan and Germany, which are two major markets, will not be part of the opening weekend, as Japan releases the film on July 3, while Germany releases it on July 23. Germany will release Toy Story 5 on July 23, after Minions & Monsters, which opens earlier in July.
Targeting Toy Story 4’s Opening Record
Toy Story 4 (2019) had the best opening box office record in the franchise. It opened with $120.9 million in North America and collected $249 million worldwide in its opening weekend.
However, these numbers were lower than expected. Analysts had predicted the film would make about 160 million domestically and $260 million worldwide.
So, it can be concluded that a movie can make a lot of money, but still be considered disappointing if it doesn’t match expected predictions.
Will Toy Story 5 Beat The Super Mario Galaxy Movie And Zootopia 2?
Earlier, it was expected that Toy Story 5 would open at around $150 million in North America, which is now revised down to about $140 million. Presale ticket data gives some early clues about how the movie would perform at the box office opening. Currently, presales stand at $25 million, which is higher than The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at the same stage before release. It is also ahead of Zootopia 2, which earned $100.2 million in three days and $158.8 million over five days. However, Toy Story 5 is still behind Moana 2, which opened with $139.7 million in three days and $225.4 million over five days.
One challenge for predictions is the Juneteenth holiday, which falls on the same weekend as the release. Holidays usually increase Friday ticket sales, so it makes it difficult to predict how Saturday will perform.
Pixar’s Box Office Records
Incredibles 2 remains Pixar’s highest domestic opener with $182.6 million, while Inside Out 2 (2024) holds the global record with a $295 million opening – including $154 million from North America and $230 million from international markets.
Toy Story 5 might not beat these numbers. However, it is expected to set a new record for the Toy Story franchise.
